 |
Table 1: Population Projection
|
Year |
Av.Gr. Rate * (%/yr) |
Population** (Billion) |
|
1991 |
1.99 |
0.843 |
|
2001 |
1.50 |
1.027 |
|
2011 |
1.02 |
1.19 |
|
2021 |
0.70 |
1.32 |
|
2031 |
0.40 |
1.41 |
|
2041 |
0.20 |
1.47 |
|
2051 |
0.00 |
1.50 |
* Average growth rate figures are applicable for the next decade. The
figure for 1991 is calculated, the rest are projected.
** The population figures for 1991 & 2001 are from Census of India
2001, the rest are projected.
Table
2: Contribution of Different Fuel Resources to Primary &
Electrical
Energy
|
Primary Energy, Year 2002-03 (Estimated) |
|||||||
|
|
Coal+Lig |
Crude |
NG |
Hydro |
Nuc |
Non-conv |
|
|
Contribution
in EJ |
6.40 |
4.83 |
1.18 |
0.79 |
0.23 |
0.03 |
13.46 |
|
% of total |
47.53 |
35.92 |
8.79 |
5.85 |
1.72 |
0.19 |
100.00 |
|
Import
(EJ) |
0.51 |
3.42 |
~0.0 |
~0.0 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
3.96 |
|
% of above |
7.97 |
70.81 |
~0.0 |
~0.0 |
13.0 |
0.00 |
29.42 |
Source: Annual
Reports of the year 2002-03 of Ministries of Power, Coal, Petroleum &
Natural Gas, Non-Conventional Energy Sources, Department of Atomic Energy and
communication from Central Electricity Authority.
|
Electricity, Year 2002-03 |
|||||
|
|
Thermal |
Hydro |
Nuclear |
Non-conv |
Total |
|
Contribution
in TWh |
550.82 |
65.66 |
19.24 |
2.66 |
638.38 |
|
% of
total |
86.3 |
10.3 |
3.0 |
0.4 |
100.0 |
1. Power from
Utilities: Thermal, Hydro and Nuclear: 531.61 TWh
(Source http://cea.nic.in/data/opt2_mon_gen_act.htm assessed on 23.4.03),
2. Wind: 2.13
TWh (Source Annual Report 2002-03 Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources)
3.
Captive Power: Capacity factor of 41% for the year 2000-01 is calculated
from the data given in “Energy” published by the Centre for Monitoring Indian
Economy, April 2002. Generation of 104 billion kWh in 2002-03 has been
calculated assuming a capacity factor of 41% on an estimated base of 29 GWe.
Table 3 : A Survey of Energy Growth Rate
Projections for India[1]
|
|
Investigator |
Period of Projection |
Primary
Commercial Energy Growth Rate (%/y) |
Electrical
Energy Growth Rate (%/y) |
|
1 |
SCE-India[2] |
2002-2012 |
4.3 |
|
|
2 |
TERI-India[3] |
1997-2019 |
4.5 |
5.7 |
|
2020-
2047 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
||
|
3 |
IEO-USA[4] |
1997-
2020 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
4 |
EAGJ-Japan[5]
|
1990-
2025 |
3.9 |
…. |
|
2026-
2050 |
2.4 |
…. |
||
|
2051-2100 |
1.8 |
…. |
||
|
5 |
IEEJ-Japan[6] |
1999-2020 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
|
6 |
RS&RAE-UK[7] |
until
2026 |
…. |
4.0 |
|
until
2050 |
…. |
3.0 |
||
|
2051-2100 |
…. |
2.0 |
||
|
7 |
CEA-India[8] |
1997-
2012 |
…. |
6.5 |
|
8 |
Present
Study |
2002-
2022 |
4.6 |
6.3 |
|
2022-2032 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
||
|
2032-2042 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
||
|
2042-
2052 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
Table
4: India's Energy Resource Base
|
|
Amount |
Thermal Energy |
Electricity Potential |
||
|
|
EJ |
TWh |
GW-yr |
GWe-yr |
|
|
Fossil |
|||||
|
Coal [9] |
38 - BT |
667 |
185,279 |
21,151 |
7,614 |
|
Hydrocarbon[10] |
12 - BT |
511 |
141,946 |
16,204 |
5,833 |
|
Non-Fossil |
|||||
|
Nuclear[11] |
|||||
|
Uranium-Metal |
61,000 -T |
|
|
|
|
|
In PHWR |
|
28.9 |
7,992 |
913 |
328 |
|
In Fast
Breeders |
|
3,699 |
1,027,616 |
117,308 |
42,231 |
|
Thorium-Metal |
2,25,000 -T |
|
|
|
|
|
In
Breeders |
|
13,622 |
3,783,886 |
431,950 |
155,502 |
Renewable
|
|||||
|
Hydro [12] |
150 - GWe |
6.0 |
1,679 |
192 |
69 |
|
Non-conv. Ren.[13]
|
100 - GWe |
2.9 |
803 |
92 |
33 |
Assumptions for Potential
Calculations
Fossil:
1. Complete
source is used for calculating electricity potential with thermal efficiency of
0.36
2. Calorific
values: Coal: 4,200 kcal/kg, Hydrocarbon: 10,200 kcal/kg
Non-Fossil:
Thermal energy
is the equivalent fossil energy required to produce electricity at 0.36
efficiency.
Nuclear
1. PHWR burn-up
= 6,700 MWd/T of uranium oxide, efficiency = 0.29.
2. Fast breeders can use 60% of the uranium. This is
an indicative number. Actual value will be determined as one proceeds with the
programme and gets some experience. Fast reactor thermal to electrical energy
conversion efficiency is taken to be 42%.
3. Breeders can use 60% thorium with efficiency of
42%. At this stage, the type of reactors wherein thorium will be used are yet
to be decided. The numbers are only indicative.
Hydro
1. Name
plate capacity is 150 GWe.
2. Estimated hydro- potential of 600
billion kWh and name plate capacity of 150 GWe gives a capacity factor of 0.46.
Non-conventional Renewable
1. Includes: Wind 45 GWe, Small Hydro 15
GWe, Biomass Power/ Co-gen. 19.5 GWe and Waste to Energy 1.7 GWe etc.
2.
Capacity factor of 0.33 has been assumed for potential calculation.
Table
5: Cost of Imported Fuel
|
Fuel |
Rs./Tonne |
Billion US $/EJ |
|
Naphtha at Indian port |
13,470 |
5.86 |
|
L.N.G. at Indian port |
12,500 |
5.80 |
|
Coal at Indian port |
2,346 |
1.67 |
|
Nat.-U (U3O8) at International
market |
11,00,000 |
0.04 |
Costs of fossil fuels are from " Draft Report of the Expert Committee on Fuels for Power Generation, Central Electricity Authority, Government of India, April 2002". Natural uranium cost is the one prevailing for most part of the year 2002-http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_g_2yr_price.html (accessed on 23-01-2003).
Table
6: External Costs
|
Fuel |
Costs (mEcu/kWh) |
Equivalent lives lost (per GWe-year) |
|
Coal |
18 -150 |
213 |
|
Lignite |
35 - 84 |
138 |
|
Oil |
26 -109 |
213 |
|
Gas |
5.0 - 31 |
27 |
|
Wind |
0.5 -
2.6 |
5 |
|
Hydro |
0.8 - 7 |
2 |
|
Biomass |
1.2 - 29 |
51 |
|
Nuclear |
2.5 -
7.3 |
1 |
Table
7: Capacity Factors & Thermal to Electrical Energy Conversion Efficiency
|
|
Capacity Factor |
Efficiency |
|||
Year
|
Thermal |
Hydro |
Non-conv
|
Nuclear
|
|
|
2002 |
0.7 |
0.38 |
0.14 |
0.80 |
0.30 |
|
2022 |
0.7 |
0.46 |
0.33 |
0.80 |
0.36 |
|
2032 |
0.7 |
0.46 |
0.33 |
0.80 |
0.36 |
|
2042 |
0.7 |
0.46 |
0.33 |
0.85 |
0.36 |
|
2052 |
0.7 |
0.46 |
0.33 |
0.85 |
0.38 |
The efficiencies quoted here have
been used for calculation of Primary Energy-equivalents of hydro, nuclear and
non-conventional renewable electricity produced.
Table
8: Primary and Electrical Energy – Projected Growth
|
Year |
Popul-ation |
Coal +
Lignite |
Hydro-carbon |
Hydro |
Nucl-ear |
Non-conv-Ren |
Prim. Energy |
Electricity |
Elec/ Prim-ary |
||
|
|
Billion |
EJ |
EJ |
EJ |
EJ |
EJ |
EJ |
EJ (ET) |
TWh |
Per Cap kWh |
% |
|
2002 |
1.04 |
6.40 |
6.02 |
0.79 |
0.23 |
0.03 |
13.46 |
7.65 |
638 |
614 |
57 |
|
2022 |
1.33 |
11 |
13 |
4.6 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
33 |
22 |
2154 |
1620 |
66 |
|
2032 |
1.42 |
19 |
19 |
6 |
4.4 |
2.0 |
51 |
35 |
3485 |
2454 |
68 |
|
2042 |
1.47 |
31 |
30 |
6 |
9.8 |
2.4 |
80 |
54 |
5438 |
3699 |
68 |
|
2052 |
1.50 |
47 |
41 |
6 |
19.4 |
2.7 |
117 |
75 |
7957 |
5305 |
64 |
For calculating primary energy in
EJ equivalent to electrical energy generated by hydro, nuclear or
non-conventional renewable sources, efficiencies given in Table 7 have been
used. ET stands for equivalent thermal.
Table
9: Installed Electrical Capacities – Fuel Mix
(Including estimated captive power)
|
|
Coal |
Hydro-carbon
|
Hydro |
Non-conv
Renewable |
Nuclear |
Total |
|||||
|
|
GWe |
% |
GWe |
% |
GWe |
% |
GWe |
% |
GWe |
% |
GWe |
|
2002 |
71.92 |
51.84 |
32.81 |
23.65 |
27.78 |
20.02 |
3.5 |
2.52 |
2.72 |
1.96 |
138.73 |
|
2022 |
156 |
37 |
60 |
14 |
115 |
28 |
56 |
13 |
29 |
7 |
417 |
|
2032 |
266 |
41 |
101 |
15 |
150 |
23 |
68 |
11 |
63 |
10 |
648 |
|
2042 |
436 |
46 |
155 |
16 |
150 |
16 |
82 |
9 |
131 |
14 |
954 |
|
2052 |
615 |
46 |
204 |
15 |
150 |
11 |
100 |
7 |
275 |
20 |
1344 |
Table
10: Electricity Generation – Fuel Mix
(Including estimated captive power
generation)
|
Year |
Coal |
Hydro-carbon
|
Hydro |
Non-conv
Renewable |
Nuclear |
Total |
Per Cap
Elec Gen |
|||||
|
|
TWh |
% |
TWh |
% |
TWh |
% |
TWh |
% |
TWh |
% |
TWh |
kWh |
|
2002 |
425.74 |
66.69 |
125.08 |
19.61 |
65.66 |
10.29 |
2.66 |
0.42 |
19.24 |
3.01 |
638.38 |
614 |
|
2022 |
957 |
44 |
369 |
17 |
460 |
21 |
162 |
8 |
206 |
10 |
2154 |
1620 |
|
2032 |
1630 |
47 |
618 |
18 |
600 |
17 |
197 |
6 |
441 |
13 |
3485 |
2454 |
|
2042 |
2673 |
49 |
950 |
18 |
600 |
11 |
237 |
4 |
978 |
18 |
5438 |
3699 |
|
2052 |
3774 |
47 |
1250 |
16 |
600 |
8 |
289 |
4 |
2044 |
26 |
7957 |
5305 |
Table
11: Cumulative Nuclear Power Installed Capacity
|
|
PHWR, AHWR and FBR based on Pu from PHWR |
LWR and
FBR based on Pu from LWR |
Sub
Total |
Grand Total |
|||||
|
Year |
Thermal (GWe) |
Fast
(GWe) |
Thermal (GWe) |
Fast
(GWe) |
Oxide
(GWe) |
Metal
(GWe) |
(GWe) |
||
|
|
Oxide |
Oxide |
Metal |
Oxide |
Oxide |
Metal |
|
|
|
|
2002 |
2.40 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.32 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
2.72 |
0.00 |
2.72 |
|
2022 |
9.96 |
2.50 |
6.00 |
8.00 |
0.00 |
3.00 |
20.46 |
9.00 |
29.46 |
|
2032 |
9.40 |
2.50 |
33.00 |
8.00 |
0.00 |
10.00 |
19.90 |
43.00 |
62.90 |
|
2042 |
7.86 |
2.50 |
87.00 |
8.00 |
0.00 |
26.00 |
18.36 |
113.00 |
131.36 |
|
2052 |
4.06 |
2.50 |
199.00 |
8.00 |
0.00 |
61.00 |
14.56 |
260.00 |
274.56 |
If only the already negotiated 2 GWe LWRs are
imported then the installed capacity in 2052
will be 208 GWe instead of 275 GWe.
Table
12: FBR Breeding Characteristics & Cycle Fissile Inventory
Fuel Type
|
Fissile Breeding |
Cycle fissile inventory for one year out of pile
period (T) |
||
|
System Doubling Time (yr) |
System Growth Rate (%/yr) |
|||
|
Oxide |
18.8 |
3.8 |
4.7 |
|
|
Carbide |
11.0 |
6.5 |
3.9 |
|
|
Metal |
8.9 |
8.1 |
3.7 |
|
Source: INFCE Studies- see Annex 2
1. Reactor Unit Installed Capacity= 1 GWe
2. Reactor Capacity Factor = 0.75
3. Fuel Discharge Burn-up: Maximum = 100 GWd/T, Average =
67.5 GWd/T
4.
Out-of-pile time period includes transportation, intermediate storage,
pretreatment, reprocessing, fabrication etc. of the fuel