Imports
      At present, India imports about 30% of its commercial energy . It is desirable that in future also the import content is limited to about the same level. India is importing coal, hydrocarbons as well as enriched uranium . Possibilities for importing gas through a pipe line from Central Asia or Middle East are being talked about, but in view of strategic constraints no firm plans are in place. It is worthwhile to compare import of nuclear fuel with the import of other forms of fuel (Table 5). Nuclear fuel contains energy in a concentrated form thus requiring much less tonnage for fuel to be transported or stored. In the overall cost of electricity generated from nuclear fuel, the cost of fuel is a much smaller component as compared to the other components. In addition, spent fuel is a resource for fuel to be used in fast breeder reactors. The cost indicated is on the assumption that the fuel is used in once through mode. These numbers can undergo minor changes over a period of time, but the order of magnitude differe-nce between the characteristics of nuclear fuel and other fuels will always remain. Further, the fuel discharged from nuclear reactors also con-tains fissile component and that can be recovered by reprocessing and recycled, preferably in FBRs, thereby further multiplying the fissile material. Thus, if import of energy is a necessity, from strategic considerations nuclear fuel is a preferable option.

      To keep the energy import at an affordable level and to have diversity of supply sources, it is necessary that the share of nuclear energy be substantially increased from the present about 3% of the total generation. Growth of nuclear installed capacity in India would depend on the chara-cteristics of the concept chosen for fast breeder reactors and associated fuel cycle technologies.

Economics and Environment
      The comparative economics of various modes of power generation depends on local conditions, discount rates and availability of cheap fuels like coal and gas. Wherever fossil fuels are available at reasonable prices, the setting up of thermal power plants is an option to be considered in any techno-economic analysis. Issues to be considered in case of coal based plants include location of coal-mines vis-a-vis load centres, coal transportation, availability of railroads for transportation, sulphur and ash content of the fuel and associated environmental impact. Plants based on imported coal have to be set up at coastal sites. India’s oil reserves are minuscule and should be reserved for use by transport sector. Gas prices are subject to fluctuations due to market forces and form a sizable fraction of electricity cost produced from gas-fired plants.

      An internal study done by Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd. (NPCIL) indicates that nuclear power is competitive as compared to coal fired thermal power, when the nuclear plant is about 1000 km from the pit-head. There are several regions in the country where such haulage is involved. Being capital intensive in nature, the cost of nuclear electricity becomes more competitive with the age of the plant as the capital cost depreciates.

      The study referred to in the previous paragraph is based on economics data pertaining to PHWRs being constructed and operated by NPCIL. Studies by IGCAR indicate that the cost of fast breeder reactor will be comparable to, if not less than, PHWR cost. “The estimated unit energy cost works out to INR 3.25 per kWh. With increased fuel burn up and series construction of reactors, the unit energy cost will come down.” The recently published study on nuclear power by MIT points out that recycle option would impose a significant penalty on nuclear power. This, however, has been strongly criticized by the French , who have real industrial experience with reprocessing and plutonium recycling. The CEA report says that “….the incremental cost of MOX recycling is between 4% and 6% of the kWh cost.” This essentially indicates that fuel cost in case of recycling is only marginally above the once through case. For Indian conditions, where the cost of natural uranium is significantly above that in the international market, this indicates that cost of plutonium-based fuels would be very competitive.

      Generally only direct costs are used in comparative assessment of different electricity options. However, the opinion is building up in favour of internalising all costs of generation in any comparative assess-ment of energy options and this would include, inter alia, the cost of impact on environment and health and cost of setting up of infrastructure for fuel transportation which is often subsidised. The largest environmental impacts associated with fossil fuels are carbon dioxide and other forms of air pollution, which can cause chronic illness. The risks associated with these impacts affect the entire planet. In addition, the volume of waste generated in case of energy generation from fossil fuels is quite large. Technically nuclear energy is far more benign and much of the cost is already internalized in financial plans. For example, nuclear power operators are required to provide funds for decommissioning of installations. External costs have been estimated by a study conducted under European Commission’s ExternE project and results reported in the year 1998 are summarized in the Table 6. Similar studies need to be conducted under Indian conditions so as to factor externalities in the process of planning.

      To reduce the risk of global climate change, industrialized countries have made commitments to reduce GHG emissions under a protocol, negotiated in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 as an addition to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the so-called Kyoto Protocol, indu-strialized countries have agreed to reduce their collective emissions during the period 2008-2012 by at least 5.2% below 1990 levels. So far no decision has been taken about carbon reduction commitments for the period beyond the year 2012, but statements have already been made, that countries like India and China should also make carbon reduction commitments. It is pertinent to note that per capita carbon emission in India is 1.1 tonnes per year and it is 2.5 tonnes per year in China while for the OECD countries, it is 10.9 tonnes per year While developing future energy technology mix, nuclear energy has to be an important part of the mix as it produces virtually no GHG emissions.

The basis for the scenario and the main features are summarized hereafter.

5.1 The Basis for Building the Scenario to Meet the Projected Demand.

Capacity Factors and Thermal to Electrical Energy Conversion Efficiency
· Due to continued improvement in technology, capacity factors of various types of power plants and thermal to electrical energy conversion efficiencies would improve as projected in the Table 7.
Hydro
· The Central Electricity Authority has completed the preliminary ranking study of hydroelectric schemes to harness the balance hydroelectric potential in the country and the report was released on 5th February 2002. It recommended achieving cumulative hydro installed capacity of 115 GWe by the year 2021-22 and the full 150 GWe by the year 2025-26.

Non-conventional Renewable
· Out of the total potential of 100 GWe of the non-conventional energy, 10 GWe is planned to be added by the year 2011-12. Assuming same rate of growth, about 56 GWe will be reached by the year 2022-23. The remaining potential is assumed to be attained by the year 2052-53.

Nuclear
· The target set by DAE of installing about 20 GWe nuclear power by the year 2020 will be achieved. This target includes 2.5 GWe of Oxide fuelled FBRs and 8 GWe of LWRs.
· R&D for using metal fuel in FBRs will be completed by the year 2020. Corresponding fuel cycle technologies will also be developed. Industrial capability to construct required numbers of FBRs of 1 GWe rating will be in place by the year 2021 and this capacity will be expanded subsequently.
· All the plutonium produced in PHWRs and in LWRs will be used for fuelling FBRs.
· Reactor physics parameters used for calculating growth of nuclear installed capacity are given in the Annex.

      The study indicates that about a quarter of the total electricity generation by nuclear power by the middle of the century is possible. The R&D issues to be completed before the year 2020 to achieve such a growth have been identified and in our opinion this is doable. It is possible to have a contribution even higher than a quarter based on nuclear energy by the middle of the century if, (i) All R&D, for setting up an ADS based on thorium as fuel, is completed and a demonstration unit is commissioned by around the year 2020,
(ii) A prototype unit of large capacity is constructed by the year 2030, and
(iii) Many such power units are set up so as to make significant contribution to electricity generation as well as to primary energy by the middle of the century.

      R&D to achieve this has been initiated as a part of the 10th five year plan in India . Efforts are being made worldwide to develop ADS for power generation as well as waste incineration and the expectation is that the construction of a full size prototype device would start around the year 2030. However, in view of paucity of energy resources, India has to take a lead role and the development on this front has to be faster. As indicated earlier, this scenario is not reported as it is yet to be fully developed.

Fossil
· Fossil resources would meet the remaining demand. Various demand growth rates assumed in the present study are based on the sectoral demand estimates made by TERI , the resource position of the domestic fuels (Table 4) and desirability of minimizing import .
· As per this scenario, the growth rates for coal & lignite demand will be about 2.9%/yr till the year 2022, 5.3%/yr during the period 2022-2032, 5.1%/yr during the period 2032-2042 and 4.3%/yr during the period 2042-2052.
· During the corresponding periods the growth rates of demand of hydrocarbons will be about 3.7 %/yr., 4.4%/yr, 4.6%/yr and 3.2%/yr.

5.2 Salient Features of the Projected Scenario

      Using the basis given in Section 5.1, the complete scenario has been calculated and the results are given in Tables 8 to 11 and figures 1 and 2. Salient features are as follows.

Energy
· Annual electricity generation would increase from about 638 TWh in the year 2002-03 to about 7957 TWh in the year 2052-53.
· Total Installed power capacity will go up from about 139 GWe in the year 2002-03 to about 1344 GWe in the year 2052-53.
· Annual primary energy consumption would increase from about 13.5 EJ in the year 2002-03 to about 117 EJ in the year 2052-53.

Contribution of Different Fuel Resources to Primary and Electrical Energy
· Approximate percentage contributions of various resources towards electricity generation in the year 2052-53 will be coal - 47%, hydrocarbon - 16%, hydro - 8%, non-conventional renewable - 4% and nuclear - 26%.
· Installed capacity distribution in the above year will be coal - 46%, hydrocarbon - 15%, hydro-11%, non-conventional renewable - 7%, and nuclear - 20%.
· Various components of primary energy in the year 2052 are projected to be Coal - 40.7%, hydrocarbon - 35.4%, Hydro - 4.9%, non-conventional renewable -2.4% and nuclear - 16.6%.

Primary Energy – Cumulative Usage
· Cumulative usage of coal by the year 2052 will be about 943 EJ as against the present domestic mineable reserves of 667 EJ. To meet the difference and to meet future requirements of coal, extensive efforts need to be launched towards discovering additional resources, improving technology of extracting coal so as to improve recovery from existing resources and exploiting resources presently considered economically unviable. The demand gap remaining after all these efforts has to be met by imports.
· For the hydrocarbons the cumulative usage will be 912 EJ as against the reserves 511 EJ. To meet the difference and to meet future requirements of hydrocarbons extensive efforts need to be launched towards discovering additional resources and improving technology so as to ensure better recovery. The demand gap remaining after all these efforts has to be met by imports.
· Cumulative hydro-energy generation till the year 2052 will be about 212 EJ.
· Cumulative non-conventional renewable energy till the year 2052 will be about 72 EJ.
· Cumulative nuclear generation till the year 2052 will be about 246 EJ. Out of it 226 EJ will be the domestic component.
· Cumulative total primary energy consumption will be ~2385 EJ. Unless known domestic resources are augmented, there will be a shortage of ~697 EJ, constituting about 29% of the total. This will have to be met by imports.
· As the presently known extractable coal reserves would have been exhausted by the middle of century, it is necessary to ensure that nuclear generation through fast breeder reactors and thorium fuelled reactors is poised to replace some of the coal based plants after about 5 decades. This requires development of ADS and/or fusion based systems at the earliest.