According to the recent census , India’s population has increased from 0.843 billion in the year 1991 to 1.027 billion in the year 2001. It represents an average annual growth rate of 1.99%/yr for the ten years. Although the population is increasing, the growth rate has been decreasing for the last many decades. According to a study published by the United Nations , depending on the population growth scenario, India’s population will cross 1.88 billion (high variant), 1.57 billion (medium variant) or 1.2 billion (Low variant) in the year 2050. For this to happen, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will have to go down from the present 2.9 children per woman to 2.6 by the year 2020 for the high variant, to 2.1 by the year 2020 for the medium variant or to 1.6 by the period 2010-15 for the low variant. In the case of the low variant, the population will be passing through a peak of nearly 1.3 billion around the year 2040. The national population policy (NPP), 2000, recently adopted by the Government of India states that ‘the long-term objective is to achieve a stable population by 2045’. The policy document assumes that the medium term objective of bringing down the total fertility rate (TFR) to the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman by the year 2010 will be achieved.

In tune with the long term objective of the Government of India, the present study assumes that India’s population will stabilize by the year 2050 at a level of 1.50 billion. A decreasing growth rate of population (1.5%/yr till 2011, 1.1%/yr till 2021, 0.7%/yr till 2031, 0.4%/yr till 2041, 0.2%/yr till 2051 and then zero) has also been assumed (Table 1).